Oscar Predictions

Anyone who knows me well knows that for me, the biggest night in television isn't the Superbowl.  Matter of fact, I pretty much hate the Super Bowl.  No, for me, it's Academy Awards, which of course are lovingly called "The Oscars" by most folks.  This year I've been living near Hollywood, and the buzz around this town come awards season is even more magnificent than it was back home or at college on the East Coast.  I love trying to predict the Academy Awards as well, so now with roughly 12 hours to go before the statues are handed out, I'm gonna post my final thoughts and predictions on most all of the categories.  I'm not even sure if you'll read this before the Awards actually do happen, but here goes: 

Best Picture

What the critics are saying: Slumdog Millionaire

What I'm saying: Slumdog Millionaire

I've only seen this film in theaters 7 times, so I may be biased, haha, but I'll be darned if there's a better film out there (that also got nominated for Best Picture).  If it had to go up against The Dark Knight or even Wall-E there might be some competition, but I don't see Benjamin Button, The Reader, Milk, or Frost/Nixon putting up much of a fight here.  Expect the "little film that could" to finally get it's due, I'm calling Slumdog by a landslide.  In the event that I'm wrong... Hmm... my second favorite of this bunch is actually Frost/Nixon, but I think if there's a film that could upset Slumdog, it would be Milk due to the political nature of the film and the awards.  And by the way, if that happens, I will be severely upset for some time, because I HATED Milk. 

Best Director

What the critics are saying: Danny Boyle

What I'm saying: Danny Boyle

By winning the DGA he's a safe lock in my opinion based on what little I know of the way the votes are cast.  Plus, he's got the best film of the year (Slumdog Millionaire), and while there are exceptions to every rule, more times than not the film that goes all the way goes hand-in-hand with best director too.  Kinda wish poor Christopher Nolan had been given a chance here... Dark Knight was awesome, and had much better directing than Milk and The Reader for sure...  

Best Actor

What the critics are saying: split between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke

What I'm saying: Frank Langella

This is easily one of the closest calls in this category that we've ever seen... Call me crazy, but I have a hunch that Frank will get his due for his portrayal of a very unpopular president in Frost/Nixon.  I know the tables are stacked against me as Mickey won the Golden Globe for The Wrestler and Sean won the SAG award for Milk, but everyone thought I was crazy last year as well when I said I thought Marion Cotillard would win Best Actress too.  We'll see... I'm personally unmoved by Sean's performance, but I could easily see any of the three (Frank, Mickey, Sean) taking this one home.  All of this is a real shame for Richard Jenkins, who gave a great performance in The Visitor.  Oh well, it's nice to be nominated, right?

Best Actress

What the critics are saying: Kate Winslet

What I'm saying: Meryl Streep

I'll probably be wrong on this one, but quite simply put, I haven't seen The Reader (and I won't either, I've not heard good things from the majority of my friends whose opinions I trust).  Whenever Meryl is nominated, it's a safe bet to vote for her, and of the performances I've seen, she's the strongest for her role in Doubt.  I did like Changeling a lot, but I'm afraid this won't be Angelina's year. 

Best Supporting Actor

What the critics are saying: Heath Ledger

What I'm saying: Heath Ledger

Do I even need to explain this one?  He's the closest thing to a sure bet you're ever going to get at the Academy Awards for his portrayal of the Joker in The Dark Knight.  If he doesn't win, the world may very well be ending... 

Best Supporting Actress

What the critics are saying: Penelope Cruz

What I'm saying: Viola Davis

A lot has been said about how hard this category is to predict.  That being said, I'm not going to say Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona and instead say that I thought Viola Davis gave the best one scene performance of any move this year in Doubt.  Will it be enough to get her the Oscar?  We'll see... she may always split votes with co-star Amy Adams and there's always the notorious Marisa Tomei upset for The Wrestler (in my book though, just prancing around in the nude as she does for 90% of her role doesn't equal acting, so she doesn't even deserve the nomination)

Screenplay - Original

What the critics are saying: Milk

What I'm saying: Wall-E

Screenplay - Adapted

What the critics are saying: Slumdog Millionaire

What I'm saying: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Animated Feature

What the critics are saying: Wall-E

What I'm saying: Wall-E

Best Foreign Language Film

What the critics are saying: Waltz With Bashir

What I'm saying: My heart still says Israel's Waltz With Bashir is probably gonna walk away with this one, but be on the lookout for a little film called Departures from Japan... I'm just saying, it could happen... Also, France has The Class to potentially spoil things

Best Documentary

What the critics are saying: Man on Wire

What I'm saying: Man on Wire

Best Art Direction

What the critics are saying: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

What I'm saying: The Dark Knight

Best Cinematography

What the critics are saying: Slumdog Millionaire

What I'm saying: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Costume Design

What the critics are saying: The Duchess

What I'm saying: The Duchess

Best Film Editing

What the critics are saying: Slumdog Millionaire

What I'm saying: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Make-Up

What the critics are saying: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

What I'm saying: Hellboy 2: The Golden Army (because I really want to one day tell someone they should watch "the Oscar winning film Hellboy 2: The Golden Army." Haha)

Best Original Score

What the critics are saying: Slumdog Millionaire

What I'm saying: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Original Song

What the critics are saying: "Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire

What I'm saying: "Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire

Best Sound Mixing

What the critics are saying: The Dark Knight

What I'm saying: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Sound Editing

What the critics are saying: Wall-E

What I'm saying: Wall-E

Best Visual Effects

What the critics are saying: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

What I'm saying: Iron Man or The Dark Knight

Best Documentary Short Subject

What the critics are saying: Smile Pinki

What I'm saying: I haven't seen any of these, so I have no clue

Best Live Action Short Subject

What the critics are saying: New Boy

What I'm saying: The Pig or Auf Der Strecke (On The Line)

Best Animated Short Subject

What the critics are saying: Presto

What I'm saying: Man, these were all excellent... I kinda lean towards La Maison en Petits Cubes, but also could easily see Lavatory - Lovestory and This Way Up taking it home.